DKFT Analysis: Turnaround Story & Nickel Outlook
I started paying attention to DKFT shares when the price was still around IDR 180 per share. The company operates as a nickel ore miner and has begun a turnaround after years of persistent losses.
The improvement in profitability was driven mainly by the shutdown of its ferronickel smelter for stainless steel production, which had consistently generated annual losses. This strategic decision marked a meaningful shift in DKFT’s operating structure.
I gradually accumulated DKFT shares until reaching an average purchase price of IDR 570. I stopped adding to my position once the share price approached IDR 600, as the valuation had risen sharply.
From a long-term perspective, DKFT has not yet demonstrated strong growth prospects. Its plan to build a battery-grade nickel smelter has not been executed and therefore has not contributed meaningful value to the business so far.
Industry Context
DKFT is among the companies benefiting from the oversupply of nickel smelters in Indonesia. Despite the decline in global nickel prices, domestic demand for nickel ore remains very strong.
As a result, Indonesia has even imported nickel ore from the Philippines to meet the needs of its domestic smelting industry.
Policy & Quota Outlook
At the end of 2025, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), Mr. Bahlil Lahadalia, announced a policy to tighten nickel mining permits as part of efforts to support a recovery in global nickel prices.
Following this announcement, global nickel prices rebounded, reaching approximately USD 17,000 per metric ton by January 2026.
In 2025, DKFT held a nickel ore mining quota of 3 million metric tons. For 2026, the company has applied for an increased quota of 7 million metric tons, supported by an expansion in its proven nickel ore reserves.
Investment View
Information regarding the approval of DKFT’s mining quota is expected to be announced in the first quarter of 2026. This development will be a key determinant in assessing whether the stock should be bought, held, or sold.
Under current conditions, I do not recommend buying DKFT shares, as the valuation has become relatively expensive compared to its fundamental progress.
Current Position
Status: Hold / Avoid adding
Key Catalyst: Mining quota approval (Q1 2026)
Main Risk: Valuation ahead of execution
This reflects my personal investment decision and perspective. It is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Investing in the capital market involves significant risks, including the potential loss of capital. Each investor should conduct their own research and make decisions according to their individual risk tolerance and financial circumstances.